2015 Will Usher In A Wave Of Integration Of Logistics Industry

The "one belt and one way" strategy may be one of the best ways to boost the logistics industry. In recent years, logistics industry Growth is slowing down.

According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2014, the whole country Social logistics The total amount of 176 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, increased by 8.3% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate dropped 0.4% from the first half of the year, down 1.3% from the same period last year. Looking back on the increase in the past 4 years, the growth of logistics demand has been slowing down steadily. 2014 years ago, 10 months ago, the total social logistics cost of the whole country was 8 trillion yuan, the growth rate dropped 2.5% compared with the first half of the year, a 7% drop compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate has dropped to about 3%. Over the past 4 years, the increase in the cost of logistics activities has narrowed considerably. This indicates that the steady and slow growth of logistics and transportation demand has led to a substantial decline in the growth of logistics costs, and logistics enterprises must tap new profit growth points.

In fact, the logistics industry is also accelerating reform. From the development of today's logistics companies, logistics companies are moving into the net. Alibaba [micro-blog] builds rookie networks, SF [micro-blog] and Tencent go deep. Logistics field 14.50,0.25 (1.75%)'s acquisition of freight warehousing companies has accelerated the competition in the logistics industry. Hongyuan securities (30.50, 0.00,0.00%) believes that the development of modern logistics has three notable characteristics: 1., the development of consumer e-commerce OTO promotes the channel change and the rise of the plane business, and its representative companies such as "Shun Feng hi shop" and "Yi Tong" (15.63, 0.67, 4.48%); 2. production logistics rapidly converge with supply chain management, representing companies such as fly Lida (12.310, 0.17, 1.40%); 3. commodity logistics development vertical electricity supplier, representing companies such as Rui Mao Tong (12.91, -0.14, -1.07%), bonded technology (14.20, 0.33,2.38%) and Henderson Daxin (14.20, 14.20, 12.91).

At the same time, the policy also pays more and more attention to the logistics industry. In June 2014, the Standing Committee of the State Council discussed and adopted the "medium and long term plan for the development of logistics industry (2014~2020)". On the one hand, the document calls for deepening the reform of the logistics management system and establishing a unified, open and competitive national logistics service market; on the other hand, it proposes to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources in the market, and strive to improve the scale and intensification level of logistics enterprises.

　 The opportunity of "one belt and one road"

Analysts generally believe that the implementation of the "one belt and one way" strategy will bring great opportunities to the development of the logistics industry.

The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the maritime silk road is called the "one belt and one way" strategy. The reason for the recognition of "one belt and one road" is that the goal of the common peace and development of Eurasian countries is to show the reality of China's future globalization from the land and sea routes. It will certainly include three dimensions: first, the channel, including the visible and invisible trade channels; second, logistics, to encourage friendly exchanges among peoples; third, culture, mutual understanding and traditional friendship, and lay a solid foundation for public opinion and social foundation for regional cooperation.

Specifically, it can be implemented as chairman Xi Jinping's "five links". Policy communication, road link, trade flow, currency circulation and people's hearts are interlinked. The industry is expected to focus on transportation, port and airport, trade and logistics, building materials (railways, highways, infrastructure), energy construction, business culture and comparative advantage manufacturing.

In transportation, Youjiang Baise, Red River and Longtan, Yantan navigation facilities will be built. Construction of Lancang River Mekong River international shipping, Sino Vietnamese Red River waterway and China Burma land water intermodal exit passage. Hayes three great ports, Quanzhou, Guangzhou and Haikou, have been actively involved in the construction of major infrastructures such as ports and other ports along the border, and promoted the construction and operation management of India strategic ports such as Pakistan Gwadar Port, Bangladesh Chittagong, and Hanban toto port, Sri Lanka. In addition, Lianyungang (8.94, 0.01, 0.11%), once opened to Europe, will help the Central Asian countries without sea going to develop economic and trade, plus the advantages of the original rail and rail transport, vigorously develop international marketing and cross-border e-commerce, and promote enterprises to establish warehousing logistics bases and distribution centers along the transportation hub and nodes along the lines, and improve regional marketing network.

The construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" will speed up the construction of a convenient, safe and efficient interconnection and interconnection network. We should plan for the interconnection of land, sea and aviation infrastructure, and actively promote the construction of the backbone channels of the Eurasian Continental Bridge, the new Eurasian Continental Bridge, the Bangladesh China Burmese economic corridor, the China Brazil economic corridor and so on. We will strive to get through the missing sections and smooth bottlenecks, strengthen the management and construction of maritime ports, increase the number of sea routes and flights, and smooth the land and water transport corridor, and expand the platform and mechanism for the comprehensive cooperation of civil aviation.

Focus on related companies

It can be predicted that with the release of the "medium and long term development plan for the logistics industry" (2012~2020), the "one way and one belt", the Yangtze River economic belt, the expansion of the free trade zone and the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be launched. There are still many policies to be followed up. It is expected to be introduced in 2015. This series of documents will become a programmatic document guiding the development of the logistics industry in the coming period. Therefore, reform is the biggest dividend for the transportation industry, and will also be the main driving force for the logistics sector. In 2015, it will continue to usher in a wave of logistics integration. This sector is valued by many analysts.

According to statistics, the overall growth of logistics sector in 2014 reached 58%, and the A share market in 2014 was the biggest gain. In the future, the innovation of characteristic logistics, modern logistics aggregation and business mode will become an inevitable choice for logistics enterprises to innovate and develop.

Societe Generale Securities (13.58, -0.44, -3.14%) believes that under the new normal in China, with the guiding principle of "one area and one belt" and the free trade area in the whole country as policy support, the cross border electricity supplier is expected to become a new economic growth point. Relevant companies will become the investment targets with both concept and basic support throughout the whole year of 2015. There will be better investment opportunities in international cross border logistics and cold chain logistics.

Stocks concern

Sinotrans development (18.20, -0.10, -0.55%) (600270)

The company is the largest air freight agent in China. It has the layout of import and export logistics in major airports all over the country, and has good cooperation with customs. It is the largest concept stock in direct mail mode. Because of the strategic cooperation with DHL, there are 120 thousand destinations in more than 200 overseas countries. In the future, if overseas outlets and channels are established to build a global trade marketing network, the cooperation mode between the company and DHL will be the most competitive. Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.73~0.98 yuan, corresponding to 23.42~17.40 times earnings.

Huamao logistics (603128)

In November 2014, the company acquired 65% shares of 4 companies such as Shanghai De Xiang Logistics Co., Ltd., which means that the company has the core license resources of cross border logistics, combined with the existing storage areas and logistics resources of the FTA, and will have a huge advantage in the future "bonded import + FTA business".

The company's original comprehensive cross-border business will continue to grow with the "one belt and one way" national product. The company merger and acquisition of tallying Co and warehouses has the concept of free trade zone. As Chinese enterprises go global, engineering logistics business will gradually increase. The company's shareholders are strong enough to have strong resource integration capabilities overseas. Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.29~0.35 yuan, corresponding to 51.12~41.44 times earnings.

Xiangyu stock (9.68, -0.03, -0.31%) (600057)

The company operates Xiangyu Bonded Zone as the site of the Fujian free trade zone with the most pure free trade area resources. In addition, the company has accumulated rich experience in cross-border electronic business. At the same time, the agricultural supply chain business that the company has just entered will continue to expand along the industrial chain, and the rapid growth can be expected. Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.30~0.44 yuan, corresponding to 33.47~22.42 times earnings.

Datong Qinhuangdao railway (11.26, 0.08, 0.72%) (601006)

The company's performance has maintained steady growth. It is expected that the freight volume in 2014 is expected to reach 4.5~4.6 million tons. In addition, its high dividend yield and the scarcity of A shares are among the concerns of long-term funds. In addition, it is expected that there will be a good increase in freight prices in 2015 for better performance. The abundant cash flow has brought greater possibilities for further improvement of the dividend rate, and the interest rate cut by the central bank [micro-blog] will further enhance the value of its class bonds. Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.99~1.12 yuan, corresponding to 11.34~10.01 times earnings.

The company actively integrates traditional logistics with electric business, Internet of things and finance, and its original static warehouse of nearly ten million square meters will be linked into a dynamic warehouse network. The potential revaluation is huge. The company's commercial real estate projects can realize the recycling development and potential value of the land. Now the company has successfully introduced the international logistics giant to carry out the trial of mixed ownership. The reform has taken a substantial step. In the future, relying on the advanced management concept and capital operation mode of the company, the company will take the road of modern management and international operation. Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.29~0.28 yuan, corresponding to 34.73~35.81 times earnings.

Lianyungang (601008)

Lianyungang is the intersection of the new Silk Road and the maritime Silk Road. The company currently has 22 production berths and related assets. At present, Lianyungang has opened 60 near ocean routes, including Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States, and has more than 1000 ports in more than 160 countries and regions of the world. It carries more than 50% of transit business in Central Asia each year, and 60% of the cargo throughput comes from the central and western regions. The huge construction projects will fully enjoy the implementation of the strategy of "one belt and one road". Expected earnings per share in 2014~2015 are 0.10~0.16 yuan, corresponding to 75.02~48.81 times earnings.