Analysis Of Enterprise Financial Crisis Early Warning System

The financial early warning system is based on the financial statements, business plans, relevant business data and external data collected. According to the organizational system established by the enterprise, various quantitative or qualitative analysis methods are adopted to inform the business operators and other stakeholders in advance of the business fluctuation and risk situation faced by the enterprises, and to analyze the reasons for the abnormal fluctuation or financial crisis of the enterprises, and to dig out the hidden problems in the financial operation system of the enterprises, so as to urge the enterprise management departments to take precautionary or preventive measures ahead of time, and provide organizational means and analysis systems for the management departments to provide decision-making and risk control basis.

When constructing enterprise's external crisis early warning system, the most important problem is the selection of financial indicators. The selected indicators should reflect the financial status and operation rules of enterprises in an all-round way, timely alert the risks existing in the financial operation of enterprises, and make prompt preventive and control measures. Generally speaking, the design of financial indicators and the construction of early warning system should follow the following principles:

1, the principle of pertinence. That is, early warning indicators must be fully integrated with the characteristics of enterprises, so that the early warning index system can be true and reliable for financial analysis and risk judgment of enterprises.

2, the principle of comprehensiveness.

That is, the early warning index system should comprehensively and systematically reflect the degree of financial risk of enterprises. The indexes designed can fully consider the financial risks that enterprises may face, so that the early warning indicators can not be duplicated or omitted.

3, the principle of dynamic. That is, we must grasp the future development trend on the basis of analyzing the present situation of enterprises. In addition, we must constantly revise and supplement the contents of the index system according to the economic development and environmental changes, so as to ensure the timeliness of early warning.

4, feasibility principle. That is, before the deterioration of the operation and financial situation of a company or the occurrence of a crisis, it can give an alarm in time. The warning signal should be clear and the judgment should be simple. The index should not be designed to be complex and practical. In addition, it is necessary to ensure that the cost is lower than the benefits it can bring.

　　 Enterprise financial early warning The process is essentially a logical analysis process, that is, applying causal analysis to find out the cause of the result from the result, and then analyze the reason and how it affects the result and the extent of the impact. The logical process of financial warning is followed by the following ideas:

1. Determine Police sentiment 。 Determining the alarm situation is the premise of early warning, and can be reflected by the forecast prosperity signals of some important early warning indicators selected in the early warning system.

2, look for the source of police. Identifying the source is the starting point of the early warning process. The police source is the root cause of the police situation. Generally speaking, there are two types of police sources: one is the less controllable police source, the other is the exogenous source of the objective conditions and the external market environment; the other is a strong controllable source of police, mainly referring to the role of some internal factors.

3. Analyze alarm signs. Analyzing alarm signs is the key link of early warning. Early warning should not only stay on the analysis of the source of police, but should make further analysis, that is, according to the analysis of police omen to predict the degree of police intelligence. According to the characteristics of external phenomena, the warning signs can be divided into boom warning signs and trend warning signs.

4. Forecast warning degree. Warning is the purpose of early warning. According to the change of alarm signs, the next prosperity signal can be determined by monitoring the prosperity signals in the early warning system, so as to determine the next level of alarm, that is, the severity of the actual alarm situation.

5. Handling police information 。 That is, what measures should be taken to deal with the situation after the occurrence of the police situation. It is very important to handle the financial crisis of the enterprise. An operable way and way of handling the police's intelligence can better prevent the enterprise's crisis. At the same time, it should also be treated according to the size and importance of the police's feelings in the process of handling, and the important police must report senior management.